Seattle’s Boom; District Bust
Too often in politics voters will say their voice doesn’t matter. And in Seattle’s city council, everyone north of Fremont could definitely say the same thing prior to 2015. That’s when voters decided on a district representation system carving Seattle into seven equal population parts (+/- 1%). Most boundaries were obvious ones, choosing waterways, major roads, and interstate highways as boundaries. True barriers that will divide communities (especially an elevated freeway). Finally, in north Seattle, their voice wouldn’t rely on the lone council member who resided in Fremont. Neighborhoods like Lake City, Bitter Lake, Haller Lake, Greenwood and Maple Leaf will have one of their own sitting on council representing them from District 5. The voters to the south would finally get their fair voice as well, requiring two council-members to hail from south of Downtown.
The district council system has been one of the best shifts in city politics thus far. While council is reviewing infrastructure projects, light rail expansions, and citywide up-zones, no better time to have seven representatives in each of these enclaves of the city voting on proposals. The concept was simple. Draw boundaries that equally divided the city into seven parts, roughly 14% of the population, and leave about a percent of flexibility (because no boundary could be perfect). This was 2015. The city’s population was 633,000. Seattle was growing, but nobody could foresee the growth still occurring three years later. Seattle’s population is now at 730,000. Much has been publicized what this does to our infrastructure, our city planning, and yes, even Seattle’s “voice”. But has anyone considered what it will do to our city council boundaries?
The city will review the boundaries after the 2020 census is released and consider boundary changes, required by law, to re-balance each district to reflect that 14.2% (+/- 1%) population distribution. Seattle’s single family neighborhoods have remained flat in growth. Seattle Times wrote about urban villages, which represent 18% of the city’s land, handling most of the growth. Last year it accounted for 88% of all the city’s housing growth. Looking at these rapidly growing areas, the city has not distributed the 100,000 new residents equally among each district. Assuming we will be north of 750,000 by 2020’s census, safe guesses can peg downtown, Capitol Hill, and the U District as our fastest growing urban villages.
The distribution of populations reflected a +/- of 1.2% as of 2015. That disparity will grow to +/-3.5% by 2020. The city’s core (Districts 3 & 7) is expected to have 33% of Seattle’s population by 2022. This residential urbaniziation can easily be seen observing our crane packed skyline from any of Seattle’s iconic views. North Seattle (Districts 5, 6, & 7) will only have 40% of the population to divide between three districts. South Seattle (Districts 1 & 2) will only have 27% to divide between two. This population distribution disparity will have a large affect on City Council’s future district boundaries.
One major thing to avoid is breaking up urban villages across multiple city council districts. Urban villages have finally found their voice in City Council, pushing for infrastructure, up-zones, services, etc and becoming some of Seattle’s most diverse and passionate neighborhoods throughout the city. Dividing their voices would do their communities harm. And, it’s worth noting, the urban village model was established 20 years ago as a means to concentrate people and infrastructure into dense cohesive communities. Breaking them up will be a disservice.
So what will be done? North Seattle will have to stretch over the cut and start grabbing land in either Magnolia or Madison. South Seattle will have to pull north of I-90 and grab some of the dense urban areas of District 3. This is the only way to achieve the equal balance as required by city charter. All seven districts will hold an election in November 2019. It will be the last time the demographics & population reflect the 2015 boundaries. 2022 could reshape much of the districts politics within themselves. District 5 will need to grow west, potentially grabbing Crown Hill. District 6 will have to grow south to grab some or all of Magnolia, the city’s older, more conservative enclave. District 4 will need to re-adjust and grab some of Madison, some of the wealthiest parts of the city as it re-balances. District 1 will increase in diversity as it crosses east over the ship canal, and District 2 will grab a younger crowd of dense urban population north of I-90. This could have a profound effect on our city’s politics.
Population boom is here, and growing. How we handle the growth is a major land use discussion. But how that conversation plays out will dramatically shift as voices shift with district boundaries in Seattle City Hall.
